Moldova faces energy crisis as flow of Russian gas ends

“We’re treating this not as an energy crisis but a security crisis, induced by Russia to destabilise Moldova both economically and socially,” Olga Rosca, foreign policy adviser to Moldova’s president, told the BBC.

“This clearly is a shaping operation ahead of parliamentary elections in 2025, to create demand for a return of pro-Russian forces to power.”

Relations between Moldova and Moscow are tense.

Once part of the USSR, the country has begun talks to join the EU and turned even more firmly away from Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

President Maia Sandu was re-elected last year despite evidence of a massive campaign against her led from Moscow.

It hasn’t stopped.

Before her inauguration, Russia’s external SVR intelligence agency issued a bizarre statement falsely claiming she planned to take back Transnistria by force to restore energy supplies. It painted the president as “frenzied” and “emotionally unstable”.

Analyst Jakub Pieńkowski agrees that the Kremlin is exploiting Kyiv’s decision to ban the transit of Russian gas.

“It’s a reason to make some political and social issues in Moldova,” he argues. “Electricity prices have already risen about six times in three years and people are angry.”

As the humanitarian situation in Transnistria worsens, pressure on Chisinau will grow. But Tiraspol is refusing all help, even generators.

“They will create a narrative of Chisinau freezing Transnistria into submission,” Olga Rosca believes.

And even if Tiraspol opts to buy gas from elsewhere, the hit to its economy could be disastrous.

“The prices here would shoot up, including for heating and food. But pensions here are tiny, and there’s no work,” Dmitry told me, from Bendery in the buffer zone on the edge of Transnistria.

He says people there are barely “clinging on” as it is. Now life elsewhere in Moldova will also get harder.

“Russia can wait for the elections and then parties who are not pro-EU will probably win,” Jakub Pieńkowski predicts.

“Because Maia Sandu can talk about EU accession. But what use is that if people don’t have money for electricity or gas?”

“This is the aim for Russia.”